Civic Intelligence

Probability Management Inc.

990 • Fiscal year 2019 • EIN 46-0572110

Jan 01, 2019 to Dec 31, 2019 • Filed on Dec 03, 2020

Organization ProfilePROBABILITYMANAGEMENT.ORG
3507 Ross RoadPalo Alto, CA 94303

(650) 520-6255

Siviq Scores

Precomputed percentiles for this filing year versus similar nonprofits in the same peer cohort.

Liabilities / Assets

57th percentile

0.00x

Tied with the lowest-debt nonprofits in its peer group.

2019 filings • 501(c)3 • <$500k nonprofits • Source year 2019

Liabilities / Revenue

57th percentile

0.00x

Tied with the lowest-debt nonprofits in its peer group.

2019 filings • 501(c)3 • <$500k nonprofits • Source year 2019

Net Margin

44th percentile

0.9%

Higher net margin than 44% of similar nonprofits.

2019 filings • 501(c)3 • <$500k nonprofits • Source year 2019

Top Officer Pay

82nd percentile

$13,275

Higher top officer pay than 82% of similar nonprofits.

Top officer pay equals 5.9% of source-year revenue.

2019 filings • 501(c)3 • <$500k nonprofits • Source year 2019

Asset Growth

52nd percentile

3.1%

Faster asset growth than 52% of similar nonprofits.

2019 filings • 501(c)3 • <$500k nonprofits • Annualized from 2018 to 2019

Revenue Growth

78th percentile

29%

Faster revenue growth than 78% of similar nonprofits.

2019 filings • 501(c)3 • <$500k nonprofits • Annualized from 2018 to 2019

Balance Sheet
Liabilities / Assets57th percentile

Assets

Up

$68,938

Up $2,048 (+3.1%) from 2018

Net Assets

Up

$68,938

Up $2,048 (+3.1%) from 2018

Liabilities

Flat

$0

Flat from 2018

Revenue And Expenses
Liabilities / Revenue57th percentileNet Margin44th percentile

Revenue

Up

$223,811

Up $50,022 (+29%) from 2018

Expenses

Up

$221,763

Up $80,762 (+57%) from 2018

Net Income

Down

$2,048

Down $30,740 (-94%) from 2018

Historical Trend

Balance Sheet Trend

Asset Growth52nd percentile

The highlighted filing sits inside the broader history for assets, liabilities, and net assets.

$100K$50K$0Assets 2013: $37,474Liabilities 2013: $0Net Assets 2013: $37,4742013Assets 2014: $38,124Liabilities 2014: $0Net Assets 2014: $38,1242014Assets 2015: $46,123Liabilities 2015: $0Net Assets 2015: $46,1232015Assets 2016: $24,201Liabilities 2016: $0Net Assets 2016: $24,2012016Assets 2017: $34,102Liabilities 2017: $0Net Assets 2017: $34,1022017Assets 2018: $66,890Liabilities 2018: $0Net Assets 2018: $66,8902018Assets 2019: $68,938Liabilities 2019: $0Net Assets 2019: $68,9382019Assets 2020: $88,717Liabilities 2020: $0Net Assets 2020: $88,7172020Assets 2021: $64,405Liabilities 2021: $0Net Assets 2021: $64,4052021Assets 2022: $16,957Liabilities 2022: $0Net Assets 2022: $16,9572022Assets 2023: $11,811Liabilities 2023: $0Net Assets 2023: $11,8112023Assets 2024: $18,469Liabilities 2024: $1,429Net Assets 2024: $17,0402024

Highlighted filing

2019

Assets$68,938
Liabilities$0
Net Assets$68,938
Open 2019 Filing

Operations Trend

Revenue Growth78th percentile

Revenue, expenses, and net income across loaded years, with this filing highlighted.

$300K$200K$100K$0-$100KRevenue 2013: $55,137Expenses 2013: $26,799Net Income 2013: $28,3382013Revenue 2014: $106,058Expenses 2014: $105,408Net Income 2014: $6502014Revenue 2015: $183,379Expenses 2015: $175,380Net Income 2015: $7,9992015Revenue 2016: $108,068Expenses 2016: $129,990Net Income 2016: -$21,9222016Revenue 2017: $113,592Expenses 2017: $103,691Net Income 2017: $9,9012017Revenue 2018: $173,789Expenses 2018: $141,001Net Income 2018: $32,7882018Revenue 2019: $223,811Expenses 2019: $221,763Net Income 2019: $2,0482019Revenue 2020: $268,448Expenses 2020: $248,669Net Income 2020: $19,7792020Revenue 2021: $261,593Expenses 2021: $285,905Net Income 2021: -$24,3122021Revenue 2022: $198,305Expenses 2022: $245,753Net Income 2022: -$47,4482022Revenue 2023: $191,216Expenses 2023: $196,362Net Income 2023: -$5,1462023Revenue 2024: $93,319Expenses 2024: $88,090Net Income 2024: $5,2292024

Highlighted filing

2019

Revenue$223,811
Expenses$221,763
Net Income$2,048
Open 2019 Filing
Jump To
Filing Snapshot
Filing Period
Jan 1, 2019 to Dec 31, 2019
Signed
Dec 3, 2020
Return Version
2019v5.1
Gross Receipts
$223,811
Mission and Program Overview

Mission

Probability management's mission is to advance unambiguous standards for communicating and managing uncertainties as data. The goal is to increase transparency and consistency in reporting and calculating with uncertainties in areas as diverse as finance, energy, pharmaceuticals, banking, the ecomnomy, national defense and climate change. The resulting representation of uncertainties must be 1) actionable, in that uncertainties may be used directly in calculations of potential risks and reward across virtually all software platforms. 2) additive, in that uncertaines may be aggregated across the enterprise, and 3) auditable, in that data provenance is maintained with respect to accuracy and security.

Probability managment's mission is to advance unambiguous standards for communicating and managing uncertainties as data. The goal is to increase transparency and consistency in reporting and calculating with uncertainties in areas as diverse as finance, energy, pharmaceuticals, banking, the economy, national defense and climate change.

Balance Sheet Detail
LineBeginningEndChange
Assets
Cash and Non-Interest-Bearing Accounts$66,874$68,938▲ $2,064
Rtn Earn Endowment Incm Other Fnds$66,890$68,938▲ $2,048
Land, Buildings, and Equipment, Net$16$0▼ $16
Pd in Cap Srpls Land Bldg Eqp Fund$0$0→ $0
Cap Stk Tr Prin Current Funds$0$0→ $0
Total Assets$66,890$68,938▲ $2,048
Liabilities
Total Liabilities$0$0→ $0
Net Assets / Fund Balance
Total Net Assets Fund Balance$66,890$68,938▲ $2,048
Total Liabilities and Net Assets / Fund Balance$66,890$68,938▲ $2,048

Asset Categories

AssetBook ValueDepreciationBasis
Equipment$0$7,736$7,736
Compensation and Service Providers
Top Officer Pay82nd percentile

Employees

NameTitleBaseTotal
Michelle HyndmanAssociate Director$13,275$13,275
June KleinCFO$800$800

Board Members and Trustees

NameTitle
Deborah GordonDirector
Sam SavageExecutive Director
Revenue and Support

Revenue Composition

Contributions and Grants
$72,335
Program Service Revenue
$151,472
Investment Income
$4
Other Revenue
$0
All Other Contributions
$72,335
Change in Net Assets
$2,048
Expenses and Functional Allocation

Major Expense Lines

Line ItemAmount
Other Expenses$221,763
Grants and Similar Amounts Paid$0
Professional Fundraising Fees$0
Salaries, Compensation, and Employee Benefits$0
Total Fundraising Expense$0

Functional Expense Allocation

Line ItemProgramManagementFundraisingTotal
Fees for Services Other$128,901$28,409-$157,310
Travel$14,173--$14,173
Information Technology$5,399--$5,399
Insurance$2,405$1,758-$4,163
Office Expenses-$3,799-$3,799
Other Expenses$3,023--$3,023
Fees for Services Accounting-$1,845-$1,845
Fees for Services Legal-$980-$980
Depreciation Depletion$16--$16
Total Functional Expenses$184,972$36,791$0$221,763
Fundraising, Events, and Gaming
Fundraising activities
No
Gaming activities
No
Professional fundraiser used
No

Fundraising and Gaming Totals

Line ItemAmount
Professional Fundraising Fees$0
Political and Lobbying Activity
Political campaign activity
No
Lobbying activity
No
Subject to proxy tax
No
Governance and Compliance

Governance Checklist

Compiled or reviewed by an accountant
No
Backup withholding compliance
Yes
Business relationship with 35% controlled entity
No
Business relationship with family members
No
Business relationship with organization members
No
Material changes to governing documents
No
Compensation from other sources disclosed
No
CEO compensation reviewed
No
Other officer compensation reviewed
No
Conflict-of-interest policy
No
Audited financial statements prepared
No
Key decisions subject to board approval
No
Management duties delegated
No

Governance Explanations

Form 990, Part VI, Section A, Line 8B

“There are no committees with authority to act on the behalf of probability management, inc.”

Form 990, Part VI, Section B, Line 11B

“Probability management, inc. Provides a copy of the tax return to the board of directors for review before form 990 is filed.”

Form 990, Part VI, Section C, Line 19

“Probability management, inc. Makes its governing documents and financial statements available to the public upon request.”

Filing and Contact Details

Filer

Filer Name
Probability Management Inc
EIN
46-0572110
Phone
6505206255
Address
3507 ROSS ROAD, PALO ALTO, CA 94303

Signing Officer

Name
Sam Savage
Title
Executive Director
Phone
6505206255
Signed
2020-12-03
Discuss with paid preparer
Yes

Organization Details

Principal Officer
Sam Savage
Formed
2012
Legal Domicile
CA
Voting Board Members
3
Independent Board Members
3
Employees
0
Volunteers
9

Preparer

Firm
Young Craig Co Llp
Address
2570 W EL CAMINO REAL 150, MOUNTAIN VIEW, CA 94040
Preparer
Fernanda Amaral
Phone
6502091800
Supplemental Narrative

Additional Explanations

Form 990, Part IX, Line 11G

“Independent contractors: program service expenses 128,901. Management and general expenses 28,409. Fundraising expenses 0. Total expenses 157,310.”

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This appendix keeps the raw XML leaves available for debugging and edge-case review. The human report above is the primary experience.

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IRS990ScheduleO/SupplementalInformationDetail/ExplanationTxt0THERE ARE NO COMMITTEES WITH AUTHORITY TO ACT ON THE BEHALF OF PROBABILITY MANAGEMENT, INC.
IRS990ScheduleO/SupplementalInformationDetail/ExplanationTxt1PROBABILITY MANAGEMENT, INC. PROVIDES A COPY OF THE TAX RETURN TO THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS FOR REVIEW BEFORE FORM 990 IS FILED.
IRS990ScheduleO/SupplementalInformationDetail/ExplanationTxt2PROBABILITY MANAGEMENT, INC. MAKES ITS GOVERNING DOCUMENTS AND FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AVAILABLE TO THE PUBLIC UPON REQUEST.
IRS990ScheduleO/SupplementalInformationDetail/ExplanationTxt3INDEPENDENT CONTRACTORS: PROGRAM SERVICE EXPENSES 128,901. MANAGEMENT AND GENERAL EXPENSES 28,409. FUNDRAISING EXPENSES 0. TOTAL EXPENSES 157,310.
IRS990ScheduleO/SupplementalInformationDetail/FormAndLineReferenceDesc0FORM 990, PART VI, SECTION A, LINE 8B
IRS990ScheduleO/SupplementalInformationDetail/FormAndLineReferenceDesc1FORM 990, PART VI, SECTION B, LINE 11B
IRS990ScheduleO/SupplementalInformationDetail/FormAndLineReferenceDesc2FORM 990, PART VI, SECTION C, LINE 19
IRS990ScheduleO/SupplementalInformationDetail/FormAndLineReferenceDesc3FORM 990, PART IX, LINE 11G
IRS990/SchoolOperatingInd00
IRS990/SignificantChangeInd00
IRS990/SignificantNewProgramSrvcInd00
IRS990/StatesWhereCopyOfReturnIsFldCd0CA
IRS990/SubjectToExcsTaxNetInvstIncInd00
IRS990/SubjectToProxyTaxInd00
IRS990/SubjToTaxRmnrtnExPrchtPymtInd00
IRS990/TaxablePartyNotificationInd00
IRS990/TaxExemptBondsInd00
IRS990/TerminateOperationsInd00
IRS990/TotalAssetsBOYAmt066890
IRS990/TotalAssetsEOYAmt068938
IRS990/TotalAssetsGrp/BOYAmt066890
IRS990/TotalAssetsGrp/EOYAmt068938
IRS990/TotalCompGreaterThan150KInd00
IRS990/TotalContributionsAmt072335
IRS990/TotalEmployeeCnt00
IRS990/TotalFunctionalExpensesGrp/FundraisingAmt00
IRS990/TotalFunctionalExpensesGrp/ManagementAndGeneralAmt036791
IRS990/TotalFunctionalExpensesGrp/ProgramServicesAmt0184972
IRS990/TotalFunctionalExpensesGrp/TotalAmt0221763
IRS990/TotalGrossUBIAmt00
IRS990/TotalLiabilitiesBOYAmt00
IRS990/TotalLiabilitiesEOYAmt00
IRS990/TotalLiabilitiesGrp/BOYAmt00
IRS990/TotalLiabilitiesGrp/EOYAmt00
IRS990/TotalNetAssetsFundBalanceGrp/BOYAmt066890
IRS990/TotalNetAssetsFundBalanceGrp/EOYAmt068938
IRS990/TotalOtherCompensationAmt00
IRS990/TotalProgramServiceExpensesAmt0184972
IRS990/TotalProgramServiceRevenueAmt0151472
IRS990/TotalReportableCompFromOrgAmt014075
IRS990/TotalRevenueGrp/ExclusionAmt04
IRS990/TotalRevenueGrp/RelatedOrExemptFuncIncomeAmt0151472
IRS990/TotalRevenueGrp/TotalRevenueColumnAmt0223811
IRS990/TotalRevenueGrp/UnrelatedBusinessRevenueAmt00
IRS990/TotalVolunteersCnt09
IRS990/TotLiabNetAssetsFundBalanceGrp/BOYAmt066890
IRS990/TotLiabNetAssetsFundBalanceGrp/EOYAmt068938
IRS990/TotReportableCompRltdOrgAmt00
IRS990/TravelGrp/ProgramServicesAmt014173
IRS990/TravelGrp/TotalAmt014173
IRS990/TrnsfrExmptNonChrtblRltdOrgInd00
IRS990/TypeOfOrganizationCorpInd0X
IRS990/UnrelatedBusIncmOverLimitInd00
IRS990/UponRequestInd0X
IRS990/USAddress/AddressLine1Txt03507 ROSS ROAD
IRS990/USAddress/CityNm0PALO ALTO
IRS990/USAddress/StateAbbreviationCd0CA
IRS990/USAddress/ZIPCd094306
IRS990/VotingMembersGoverningBodyCnt03
IRS990/VotingMembersIndependentCnt03
IRS990/WebsiteAddressTxt0PROBABILITYMANAGEMENT.ORG
IRS990/WhistleblowerPolicyInd00
ReturnHeader/BuildTS02021-01-29 14:40:06Z
ReturnHeader/BusinessOfficerGrp/DiscussWithPaidPreparerInd01
ReturnHeader/BusinessOfficerGrp/PersonNm0SAM SAVAGE
ReturnHeader/BusinessOfficerGrp/PersonTitleTxt0EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
ReturnHeader/BusinessOfficerGrp/PhoneNum06505206255
ReturnHeader/BusinessOfficerGrp/SignatureDt02020-12-03
ReturnHeader/Filer/BusinessName/BusinessNameLine1Txt0PROBABILITY MANAGEMENT INC
ReturnHeader/Filer/BusinessNameControlTxt0PROB
ReturnHeader/Filer/EIN0460572110
ReturnHeader/Filer/PhoneNum06505206255
ReturnHeader/Filer/USAddress/AddressLine1Txt03507 ROSS ROAD
ReturnHeader/Filer/USAddress/CityNm0PALO ALTO
ReturnHeader/Filer/USAddress/StateAbbreviationCd0CA
ReturnHeader/Filer/USAddress/ZIPCd094303
ReturnHeader/FilingSecurityInformation/AtSubmissionCreationDeviceId039D1774DAFAF091C0B776742626D677E64211C22
ReturnHeader/FilingSecurityInformation/AtSubmissionFilingDeviceId039D1774DAFAF091C0B776742626D677E64211C22
ReturnHeader/FilingSecurityInformation/FilingLicenseTypeCd0P
ReturnHeader/FilingSecurityInformation/IPAddress/IPv4AddressTxt013.86.183.38
ReturnHeader/FilingSecurityInformation/IPDt02020-12-03
ReturnHeader/FilingSecurityInformation/IPTimezoneCd0PS
ReturnHeader/FilingSecurityInformation/IPTm009:48:29
ReturnHeader/PreparerFirmGrp/PreparerFirmEIN0270995027
ReturnHeader/PreparerFirmGrp/PreparerFirmName/BusinessNameLine1Txt0YOUNG CRAIG CO LLP
ReturnHeader/PreparerFirmGrp/PreparerUSAddress/AddressLine1Txt02570 W EL CAMINO REAL 150
ReturnHeader/PreparerFirmGrp/PreparerUSAddress/CityNm0MOUNTAIN VIEW
ReturnHeader/PreparerFirmGrp/PreparerUSAddress/StateAbbreviationCd0CA
ReturnHeader/PreparerFirmGrp/PreparerUSAddress/ZIPCd094040
ReturnHeader/PreparerPersonGrp/PhoneNum06502091800
ReturnHeader/PreparerPersonGrp/PreparerPersonNm0FERNANDA AMARAL
ReturnHeader/ReturnTs02020-12-15T17:28:26-06:00
ReturnHeader/ReturnTypeCd0990
ReturnHeader/TaxPeriodBeginDt02019-01-01
ReturnHeader/TaxPeriodEndDt02019-12-31
ReturnHeader/TaxYr02019

Document Assets

No mirrored PDF or thumbnail assets are attached yet.

Filings

Displayed year

2019 • Form 990Detailed filing. Detailed filing data is available for this year.

Open filing
Assets
$68,938
Liabilities
$0
Net assets
$68,938
Revenue
$223,811
Expenses
$221,763
Net income
$2,048
Balance SheetOperations
YearAssetsLiabilitiesNet AssetsRevenueExpensesNet Income
2024XML pending. An XML filing is linked for this year, but detailed extraction is still pending.$0.18$0.01$0.17$0.93$0.88$0.05
2023XML pending. An XML filing is linked for this year, but detailed extraction is still pending.$0.12$0.00$0.12$1.91$1.96$0.05
2022Facts available. Structured filing facts are available, but richer extracted sections are limited.$0.17$0.00$0.17$1.98$2.46$0.47
2021Facts available. Structured filing facts are available, but richer extracted sections are limited.$0.64$0.00$0.64$2.62$2.86$0.24
2020XML pending. An XML filing is linked for this year, but detailed extraction is still pending.$0.89$0.00$0.89$2.68$2.49$0.20
2019Detailed filing. Detailed filing data is available for this year.$0.69$0.00$0.69$2.24$2.22$0.02
2018XML pending. An XML filing is linked for this year, but detailed extraction is still pending.$0.67$0.00$0.67$1.74$1.41$0.33
2017XML pending. An XML filing is linked for this year, but detailed extraction is still pending.$0.34$0.00$0.34$1.14$1.04$0.10
2016XML pending. An XML filing is linked for this year, but detailed extraction is still pending.$0.24$0.00$0.24$1.08$1.30$0.22
2015Detailed filing. Detailed filing data is available for this year.$0.46$0.00$0.46$1.83$1.75$0.08
2014Detailed filing. Detailed filing data is available for this year.$0.38$0.00$0.38$1.06$1.05$0.01
2013Detailed filing. Detailed filing data is available for this year.$0.37$0.00$0.37$0.55$0.27$0.28