Civic Intelligence

Probability Management Inc.

990EZ • Fiscal year 2016 • EIN 46-0572110

Jan 01, 2016 to Dec 31, 2016 • Filed on Aug 14, 2017

3507 Ross RoadPalo Alto, CA 94303

(650) 520-6255

Siviq Scores

Precomputed percentiles for this filing year versus similar nonprofits in the same peer cohort.

Liabilities / Assets

56th percentile

0.00x

Tied with the lowest-debt nonprofits in its peer group.

2016 filings • 501(c)3 • <$500k nonprofits • Source year 2016

Liabilities / Revenue

55th percentile

0.00x

Tied with the lowest-debt nonprofits in its peer group.

2016 filings • 501(c)3 • <$500k nonprofits • Source year 2016

Net Margin

16th percentile

-20%

Higher net margin than 16% of similar nonprofits.

2016 filings • 501(c)3 • <$500k nonprofits • Source year 2016

Top Officer Pay

84th percentile

$22,650

Higher top officer pay than 84% of similar nonprofits.

Top officer pay equals 21.0% of source-year revenue.

2016 filings • 501(c)3 • <$500k nonprofits • Source year 2016

Asset Growth

9th percentile

-48%

Faster asset growth than 9% of similar nonprofits.

2016 filings • 501(c)3 • <$500k nonprofits • Annualized from 2015 to 2016

Revenue Growth

12th percentile

-41%

Faster revenue growth than 12% of similar nonprofits.

2016 filings • 501(c)3 • <$500k nonprofits • Annualized from 2015 to 2016

Assets

Down

$24,201

Down $21,922 (-48%) from 2015

Net Assets

Down

$24,201

Down $21,922 (-48%) from 2015

Liabilities

Flat

$0

Flat from 2015

Revenue

Down

$108,068

Down $75,311 (-41%) from 2015

Expenses

Down

$129,990

Down $45,390 (-26%) from 2015

Net Income

Down

-$21,922

Down $29,921 (-374%) from 2015

Historical Trend

Balance Sheet Trend

The highlighted filing sits inside the broader history for assets, liabilities, and net assets.

$100K$50K$0Assets 2013: $37,474Liabilities 2013: $0Net Assets 2013: $37,4742013Assets 2014: $38,124Liabilities 2014: $0Net Assets 2014: $38,1242014Assets 2015: $46,123Liabilities 2015: $0Net Assets 2015: $46,1232015Assets 2016: $24,201Liabilities 2016: $0Net Assets 2016: $24,2012016Assets 2017: $34,102Liabilities 2017: $0Net Assets 2017: $34,1022017Assets 2018: $66,890Liabilities 2018: $0Net Assets 2018: $66,8902018Assets 2019: $68,938Liabilities 2019: $0Net Assets 2019: $68,9382019Assets 2020: $88,717Liabilities 2020: $0Net Assets 2020: $88,7172020Assets 2021: $64,405Liabilities 2021: $0Net Assets 2021: $64,4052021Assets 2022: $16,957Liabilities 2022: $0Net Assets 2022: $16,9572022Assets 2023: $11,811Liabilities 2023: $0Net Assets 2023: $11,8112023Assets 2024: $18,469Liabilities 2024: $1,429Net Assets 2024: $17,0402024

Highlighted filing

2016

Assets$24,201
Liabilities$0
Net Assets$24,201

Operations Trend

Revenue, expenses, and net income across loaded years, with this filing highlighted.

$300K$200K$100K$0-$100KRevenue 2013: $55,137Expenses 2013: $26,799Net Income 2013: $28,3382013Revenue 2014: $106,058Expenses 2014: $105,408Net Income 2014: $6502014Revenue 2015: $183,379Expenses 2015: $175,380Net Income 2015: $7,9992015Revenue 2016: $108,068Expenses 2016: $129,990Net Income 2016: -$21,9222016Revenue 2017: $113,592Expenses 2017: $103,691Net Income 2017: $9,9012017Revenue 2018: $173,789Expenses 2018: $141,001Net Income 2018: $32,7882018Revenue 2019: $223,811Expenses 2019: $221,763Net Income 2019: $2,0482019Revenue 2020: $268,448Expenses 2020: $248,669Net Income 2020: $19,7792020Revenue 2021: $261,593Expenses 2021: $285,905Net Income 2021: -$24,3122021Revenue 2022: $198,305Expenses 2022: $245,753Net Income 2022: -$47,4482022Revenue 2023: $191,216Expenses 2023: $196,362Net Income 2023: -$5,1462023Revenue 2024: $93,319Expenses 2024: $88,090Net Income 2024: $5,2292024

Highlighted filing

2016

Revenue$108,068
Expenses$129,990
Net Income-$21,922
Jump To
Filing Snapshot
Filing Period
Jan 1, 2016 to Dec 31, 2016
Signed
Aug 14, 2017
Return Version
2016v3.0
Gross Receipts
$108,068
Mission and Program Overview

Mission

Probability management's mission is to advance unambiguous standards for communicating and managing uncertainties as data. The goal is to increase transparency and consistency in reporting and calculating with uncertainties in areas as diverse as finance, energy, pharmaceuticals, banking, the ecomnomy, national defense and climate change. The resulting representation of uncertainties must be 1) actionable, in that uncertainties may be used directly in calculations of potential risks and reward across virtually all software platforms. 2) additive, in that uncertaines may be aggregated across the enterprise, and 3) auditable, in that data provenance is maintained with respect to accuracy and security.

Program Services

DescriptionGrantsExpenses
PROBABILITY MANAGMENT'S MISSION IS TO ADVANCE UNAMBIGUOUS STANDARDS FOR COMMUNICATING AND MANAGING UNCERTAINTIES AS DATA. THE GOAL IS TO INCREASE TRANSPARENCY AND CONSISTENCY IN REPORTING AND CALCULATING WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN AREAS AS DIVERSE AS FINANCE, ENERGY, PHARMACEUTICALS, BANKING, THE ECONOMY, NATIONAL DEFENSE AND CLIMATE CHANGE.$0$117,360
Compensation and Service Providers

Employees

NameTitleFull / Part TimeBaseOtherTotal
MELISSA KIRMSEDirector Of OperationsPT$22,650-$22,650
DAVE EMPEYDirector Of Software DevelopmentPT$21,808-$21,808
MICHELE HYNDMANDirectorPT$20,725-$20,725
JUNE KLEINCFO-$800-$800
SAM SAVAGEExecutive DirectorPT$0--
HARRY MARKOWITZDirector-$0--
Filing and Contact Details

Filer

Filer Name
Probability Management Inc
EIN
46-0572110
Phone
6505206255
Address
3507 ROSS ROAD, PALO ALTO, CA 94303

Signing Officer

Name
Sam Savage
Title
Executive Director
Phone
6505206255
Signed
2017-08-14
Discuss with paid preparer
Yes

Preparer

Firm
Young Craig Co Llp
Address
2570 W EL CAMINO REAL 150, MOUNTAIN VIEW, CA 94040
Preparer
Raymond H Skitt
Phone
6502091800
Supplemental Narrative

Additional Explanations

Form 990-ez, Part I, Line 4 - Other Investment Income

Description: interest. Amount: 2.

Form 990-ez, Part I, Line 14

Description: depreciation/amortization. Amount: 1,490.

Form 990-ez, Part I, Line 16 - Other Expenses

Description: education and outreach. Amount: 28,732. Description: info tech - program service. Amount: 2,823. Description: insurance. Amount: 2,984. Description: meals & entertainment. Amount: 982. Description: office expenses. Amount: 1,994. Description: travel. Amount: 11,234. Total to form 990-ez, line 16: 48,749.

Form 990-ez, Part II, Line 24 - Other Assets

Description: other depreciable assets. Beg. Of year amount: 2,526. End of year amount: 1,036.

Raw XML Appendix201 raw XML fields

This appendix keeps the raw XML leaves available for debugging and edge-case review. The human report above is the primary experience.

Path#Value
CompensationExplanation/CompensationExplanationGrp/PersonNm0SAM SAVAGE
CompensationExplanation/CompensationExplanationGrp/ShortExplanationTxt0NO COMPENSATION PAID
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IRS990EZ/BooksInCareOfDetail/USAddress/AddressLine1Txt03507 ROSS ROAD
IRS990EZ/BooksInCareOfDetail/USAddress/CityNm0PALO ALTO
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IRS990EZ/OfficerDirectorTrusteeEmplGrp/PersonNm0SAM SAVAGE
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IRS990EZ/OfficerDirectorTrusteeEmplGrp/PersonNm4MELISSA KIRMSE
IRS990EZ/OfficerDirectorTrusteeEmplGrp/PersonNm5DAVE EMPEY
IRS990EZ/OfficerDirectorTrusteeEmplGrp/TitleTxt0EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
IRS990EZ/OfficerDirectorTrusteeEmplGrp/TitleTxt1DIRECTOR
IRS990EZ/OfficerDirectorTrusteeEmplGrp/TitleTxt2DIRECTOR
IRS990EZ/OfficerDirectorTrusteeEmplGrp/TitleTxt3CFO
IRS990EZ/OfficerDirectorTrusteeEmplGrp/TitleTxt4DIRECTOR OF OPERATIONS
IRS990EZ/OfficerDirectorTrusteeEmplGrp/TitleTxt5DIRECTOR OF SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT
IRS990EZ/OperateHospitalInd00
IRS990EZ/Organization501c3Ind0X
IRS990EZ/OrganizationDissolvedEtcInd00
IRS990EZ/OrganizationHadUBIInd00
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IRS990EZ/OtherChangesInNetAssetsAmt00
IRS990EZ/OtherExpensesTotalAmt048749
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IRS990EZ/PrimaryExemptPurposeTxt0PROBABILITY MANAGEMENT'S MISSION IS TO ADVANCE UNAMBIGUOUS STANDARDS FOR COMMUNICATING AND MANAGING UNCERTAINTIES AS DATA. THE GOAL IS TO INCREASE TRANSPARENCY AND CONSISTENCY IN REPORTING AND CALCULATING WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN AREAS AS DIVERSE AS FINANCE, ENERGY, PHARMACEUTICALS, BANKING, THE ECOMNOMY, NATIONAL DEFENSE AND CLIMATE CHANGE. THE RESULTING REPRESENTATION OF UNCERTAINTIES MUST BE 1) ACTIONABLE, IN THAT UNCERTAINTIES MAY BE USED DIRECTLY IN CALCULATIONS OF POTENTIAL RISKS AND REWARD ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL SOFTWARE PLATFORMS. 2) ADDITIVE, IN THAT UNCERTAINES MAY BE AGGREGATED ACROSS THE ENTERPRISE, AND 3) AUDITABLE, IN THAT DATA PROVENANCE IS MAINTAINED WITH RESPECT TO ACCURACY AND SECURITY.
IRS990EZ/ProgramServiceRevenueAmt023261
IRS990EZ/ProgramSrvcAccomplishmentGrp/DescriptionProgramSrvcAccomTxt0PROBABILITY MANAGMENT'S MISSION IS TO ADVANCE UNAMBIGUOUS STANDARDS FOR COMMUNICATING AND MANAGING UNCERTAINTIES AS DATA. THE GOAL IS TO INCREASE TRANSPARENCY AND CONSISTENCY IN REPORTING AND CALCULATING WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN AREAS AS DIVERSE AS FINANCE, ENERGY, PHARMACEUTICALS, BANKING, THE ECONOMY, NATIONAL DEFENSE AND CLIMATE CHANGE.
IRS990EZ/ProgramSrvcAccomplishmentGrp/GrantsAndAllocationsAmt00
IRS990EZ/ProgramSrvcAccomplishmentGrp/ProgramServiceExpensesAmt0117360
IRS990EZ/ProhibitedTaxShelterTransInd00
IRS990EZ/RelatedOrganizationCtrlEntInd00
IRS990EZ/SalariesOtherCompEmplBnftAmt065983
IRS990EZ/SchoolOperatingInd00
IRS990EZ/StatesWhereCopyOfReturnIsFldCd0CA
IRS990EZ/SubjectToProxyTaxInd00
IRS990EZ/SumOfTotalLiabilitiesGrp/BOYAmt00
IRS990EZ/SumOfTotalLiabilitiesGrp/EOYAmt00
IRS990EZ/TanningServicesProvidedInd00
IRS990EZ/TaxImposedOnOrganizationMgrAmt00
IRS990EZ/TaxImposedUnderIRC4911Amt00
IRS990EZ/TaxImposedUnderIRC4912Amt00
IRS990EZ/TaxImposedUnderIRC4955Amt00
IRS990EZ/TaxReimbursedByOrganizationAmt00
IRS990EZ/TotalExpensesAmt0129990
IRS990EZ/TotalProgramServiceExpensesAmt0117360
IRS990EZ/TotalRevenueAmt0108068
IRS990EZ/TrnsfrExmptNonChrtblRltdOrgInd00
IRS990EZ/TypeOfOrganizationCorpInd0X
IRS990EZ/WebsiteAddressTxt0PROBABILITYMANAGEMENT.ORG
IRS990ScheduleA/AmountsRcvdDsqlfyPersonGrp/TotalAmt00
IRS990ScheduleA/GiftsGrantsContrisRcvd509Grp/CurrentTaxYearAmt084805
IRS990ScheduleA/GiftsGrantsContrisRcvd509Grp/CurrentTaxYearMinus1YearAmt0144110
IRS990ScheduleA/GiftsGrantsContrisRcvd509Grp/CurrentTaxYearMinus2YearsAmt0106047
IRS990ScheduleA/GiftsGrantsContrisRcvd509Grp/CurrentTaxYearMinus3YearsAmt028557
IRS990ScheduleA/GiftsGrantsContrisRcvd509Grp/CurrentTaxYearMinus4YearsAmt012333
IRS990ScheduleA/GiftsGrantsContrisRcvd509Grp/TotalAmt0375852
IRS990ScheduleA/GrossInvestmentIncome509Grp/CurrentTaxYearAmt02
IRS990ScheduleA/GrossInvestmentIncome509Grp/CurrentTaxYearMinus1YearAmt01
IRS990ScheduleA/GrossInvestmentIncome509Grp/CurrentTaxYearMinus2YearsAmt011
IRS990ScheduleA/GrossInvestmentIncome509Grp/TotalAmt014
IRS990ScheduleA/GrossReceiptsAdmissionsGrp/CurrentTaxYearAmt023261
IRS990ScheduleA/GrossReceiptsAdmissionsGrp/CurrentTaxYearMinus1YearAmt038233
IRS990ScheduleA/GrossReceiptsAdmissionsGrp/TotalAmt061494
IRS990ScheduleA/InvestmentIncomeAndUBTIGrp/CurrentTaxYearAmt02
IRS990ScheduleA/InvestmentIncomeAndUBTIGrp/CurrentTaxYearMinus1YearAmt01
IRS990ScheduleA/InvestmentIncomeAndUBTIGrp/CurrentTaxYearMinus2YearsAmt011
IRS990ScheduleA/InvestmentIncomeAndUBTIGrp/TotalAmt014
IRS990ScheduleA/InvestmentIncomeCYPct00.00000
IRS990ScheduleA/OtherIncome509Grp/CurrentTaxYearMinus1YearAmt035
IRS990ScheduleA/OtherIncome509Grp/TotalAmt035
IRS990ScheduleA/PubliclySupportedOrg509a2Ind0X
IRS990ScheduleA/PublicSupportCY509Pct00.99990
IRS990ScheduleA/PublicSupportPY509Pct00.99990
IRS990ScheduleA/PublicSupportTotal509Amt0437346
IRS990ScheduleA/SubstAndDsqlfyPrsnsTotGrp/TotalAmt00
IRS990ScheduleA/SubstantialContributorsAmtGrp/TotalAmt00
IRS990ScheduleA/ThirtyThrPctSuprtTestsCY509Ind0X
IRS990ScheduleA/Total509Grp/CurrentTaxYearAmt0108066
IRS990ScheduleA/Total509Grp/CurrentTaxYearMinus1YearAmt0182343
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IRS990ScheduleA/Total509Grp/CurrentTaxYearMinus3YearsAmt028557
IRS990ScheduleA/Total509Grp/CurrentTaxYearMinus4YearsAmt012333
IRS990ScheduleA/Total509Grp/TotalAmt0437346
IRS990ScheduleA/TotalSupportCalendarYearGrp/CurrentTaxYearAmt0108068
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IRS990ScheduleA/TotalSupportCalendarYearGrp/CurrentTaxYearMinus2YearsAmt0106058
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IRS990ScheduleA/TotalSupportCalendarYearGrp/CurrentTaxYearMinus4YearsAmt012333
IRS990ScheduleA/TotalSupportCalendarYearGrp/TotalAmt0437395
IRS990ScheduleB/ContributorInformationGrp/ContributorBusinessName/BusinessNameLine10RESTRICTED
IRS990ScheduleB/ContributorInformationGrp/ContributorNum0RESTRICTED
IRS990ScheduleB/ContributorInformationGrp/ContributorUSAddress/AddressLine10RESTRICTED
IRS990ScheduleB/ContributorInformationGrp/ContributorUSAddress/AddressLine20RESTRICTED
IRS990ScheduleB/ContributorInformationGrp/ContributorUSAddress/City0RESTRICTED
IRS990ScheduleB/ContributorInformationGrp/ContributorUSAddress/State0RESTRICTED
IRS990ScheduleB/ContributorInformationGrp/ContributorUSAddress/ZIPCode0RESTRICTED
IRS990ScheduleB/ContributorInformationGrp/TotalContributionsAmt0RESTRICTED
IRS990ScheduleO/SupplementalInformationDetail/ExplanationTxt0DESCRIPTION: INTEREST. AMOUNT: 2.
IRS990ScheduleO/SupplementalInformationDetail/ExplanationTxt1DESCRIPTION: DEPRECIATION/AMORTIZATION. AMOUNT: 1,490.
IRS990ScheduleO/SupplementalInformationDetail/ExplanationTxt2DESCRIPTION: EDUCATION AND OUTREACH. AMOUNT: 28,732. DESCRIPTION: INFO TECH - PROGRAM SERVICE. AMOUNT: 2,823. DESCRIPTION: INSURANCE. AMOUNT: 2,984. DESCRIPTION: MEALS & ENTERTAINMENT. AMOUNT: 982. DESCRIPTION: OFFICE EXPENSES. AMOUNT: 1,994. DESCRIPTION: TRAVEL. AMOUNT: 11,234. TOTAL TO FORM 990-EZ, LINE 16: 48,749.
IRS990ScheduleO/SupplementalInformationDetail/ExplanationTxt3DESCRIPTION: OTHER DEPRECIABLE ASSETS. BEG. OF YEAR AMOUNT: 2,526. END OF YEAR AMOUNT: 1,036.
IRS990ScheduleO/SupplementalInformationDetail/FormAndLineReferenceDesc0FORM 990-EZ, PART I, LINE 4 - OTHER INVESTMENT INCOME
IRS990ScheduleO/SupplementalInformationDetail/FormAndLineReferenceDesc1FORM 990-EZ, PART I, LINE 14
IRS990ScheduleO/SupplementalInformationDetail/FormAndLineReferenceDesc2FORM 990-EZ, PART I, LINE 16 - OTHER EXPENSES
IRS990ScheduleO/SupplementalInformationDetail/FormAndLineReferenceDesc3FORM 990-EZ, PART II, LINE 24 - OTHER ASSETS
TransferPrsnlBnftContractsDecl/DeclarationDesc0THE ORGANIZATION DID NOT, DURING THE YEAR, RECEIVE ANY FUNDS, DIRECTLY,OR INDIRECTLY, TO PAY PREMIUMS ON A PERSONAL BENEFIT CONTRACT.THE ORGANIZATION, DID NOT, DURING THE YEAR, PAY ANY PREMIUMS, DIRECTLY,OR INDIRECTLY, ON A PERSONAL BENEFIT CONTRACT.
ReturnHeader/BuildTS02017-02-10 21:41:12Z
ReturnHeader/BusinessOfficerGrp/DiscussWithPaidPreparerInd01
ReturnHeader/BusinessOfficerGrp/PersonNm0SAM SAVAGE
ReturnHeader/BusinessOfficerGrp/PersonTitleTxt0EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
ReturnHeader/BusinessOfficerGrp/PhoneNum06505206255
ReturnHeader/BusinessOfficerGrp/SignatureDt02017-08-14
ReturnHeader/Filer/BusinessName/BusinessNameLine1Txt0PROBABILITY MANAGEMENT INC
ReturnHeader/Filer/BusinessNameControlTxt0PROB
ReturnHeader/Filer/EIN0460572110
ReturnHeader/Filer/PhoneNum06505206255
ReturnHeader/Filer/USAddress/AddressLine1Txt03507 ROSS ROAD
ReturnHeader/Filer/USAddress/CityNm0PALO ALTO
ReturnHeader/Filer/USAddress/StateAbbreviationCd0CA
ReturnHeader/Filer/USAddress/ZIPCd094303
ReturnHeader/FilingSecurityInformation/AtSubmissionCreationDeviceId0BE28866536E1599234B9D748CD9014F018984B83
ReturnHeader/FilingSecurityInformation/AtSubmissionFilingDeviceId0BE28866536E1599234B9D748CD9014F018984B83
ReturnHeader/FilingSecurityInformation/FilingLicenseTypeCd0P
ReturnHeader/FilingSecurityInformation/IPAddress/IPv4AddressTxt068.65.72.242
ReturnHeader/FilingSecurityInformation/IPDt02017-08-14
ReturnHeader/FilingSecurityInformation/IPTimezoneCd0PD
ReturnHeader/FilingSecurityInformation/IPTm011:10:43
ReturnHeader/PreparerFirmGrp/PreparerFirmEIN0270995027
ReturnHeader/PreparerFirmGrp/PreparerFirmName/BusinessNameLine1Txt0YOUNG CRAIG CO LLP
ReturnHeader/PreparerFirmGrp/PreparerUSAddress/AddressLine1Txt02570 W EL CAMINO REAL 150
ReturnHeader/PreparerFirmGrp/PreparerUSAddress/CityNm0MOUNTAIN VIEW
ReturnHeader/PreparerFirmGrp/PreparerUSAddress/StateAbbreviationCd0CA
ReturnHeader/PreparerFirmGrp/PreparerUSAddress/ZIPCd094040
ReturnHeader/PreparerPersonGrp/PhoneNum06502091800
ReturnHeader/PreparerPersonGrp/PreparerPersonNm0RAYMOND H SKITT
ReturnHeader/ReturnTs02017-09-22T12:19:09-05:00
ReturnHeader/ReturnTypeCd0990EZ
ReturnHeader/TaxPeriodBeginDt02016-01-01
ReturnHeader/TaxPeriodEndDt02016-12-31
ReturnHeader/TaxYr02016

Document Assets

No mirrored PDF or thumbnail assets are attached yet.

Filings

Balance SheetOperations
YearAssetsLiabilitiesNet AssetsRevenueExpensesNet Income
2024XML pending. An XML filing is linked for this year, but detailed extraction is still pending.$0.18$0.01$0.17$0.93$0.88$0.05
2023XML pending. An XML filing is linked for this year, but detailed extraction is still pending.$0.12$0.00$0.12$1.91$1.96$0.05
2022Facts available. Structured filing facts are available, but richer extracted sections are limited.$0.17$0.00$0.17$1.98$2.46$0.47
2021Facts available. Structured filing facts are available, but richer extracted sections are limited.$0.64$0.00$0.64$2.62$2.86$0.24
2020XML pending. An XML filing is linked for this year, but detailed extraction is still pending.$0.89$0.00$0.89$2.68$2.49$0.20
2019Facts available. Structured filing facts are available, but richer extracted sections are limited.$0.69$0.00$0.69$2.24$2.22$0.02
2018XML pending. An XML filing is linked for this year, but detailed extraction is still pending.$0.67$0.00$0.67$1.74$1.41$0.33
2017XML pending. An XML filing is linked for this year, but detailed extraction is still pending.$0.34$0.00$0.34$1.14$1.04$0.10
2016Detailed filing. Detailed filing data is available for this year.$0.24$0.00$0.24$1.08$1.30$0.22
2015Detailed filing. Detailed filing data is available for this year.$0.46$0.00$0.46$1.83$1.75$0.08
2014Detailed filing. Detailed filing data is available for this year.$0.38$0.00$0.38$1.06$1.05$0.01
2013Detailed filing. Detailed filing data is available for this year.$0.37$0.00$0.37$0.55$0.27$0.28